Elio gives Pixar its worst ever box-office opening despite positive reviews
Pixar has had its worst box office opening ever with Elio, its new, alien-themed children’s animation, taking just an estimated US$21m in North America and $14m internationally, despite generally positive reviews. Elio, about an orphaned boy whose dream of being abducted by (friendly) aliens comes true, struggled against the competition: Disney’s live action remake of How To Train Your Dragon, which ate the competition with $37m in its second weekend; and Danny Boyle’s zombie threequel 28 Years Later, which landed 23 years after his cult classic 28 Days Later and took $30m in North America and $60m globally. Pixar, the powerhouse studio behind Toy Story, Finding Nemo and The Incredibles, had been bracing for modest results for Elio as it weathers an industry-wide trend of original animations struggling to perform against franchises and remakes. While Pixar has found success with its own franchises – most recently Inside Out 2, which grossed an estimated $155m in its opening weekend and a total of $1.7bn globally in 2024 – it has found original ideas a harder sell. Ahead of Elio’s opening weekend, pre-release tracking suggested it would be on par with Pixar’s 2023 original Elemental, which took just under $30m in its opening weekend – a significant step down from the high-water mark for original animations set by the studio with 2017’s Coco, which took $49m at the domestic box office in its opening weekend and $814.3m globally across its release. On Sunday, Pixar’s corporate parent, Disney, said it was confident its latest movie would find the same longer-term success as Elemental, a sleeper hit that ultimately took almost $500m globally. Exit data bodes well, with Elio scoring glowing PostTrak exit results from its opening weekend, and an A CinemaScore, including an A+ from kids. Reviews have also been generally positive, although some critics have found it underwhelming. Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw said the film had “charm, likability and that potent ingredient: childhood loneliness and vulnerability”, while also describing the large chunk of the film set in space as “[occasionally] a little formulaic, a bit programmatic”. Pixar’s most successful opening weekend in its 39 year-history was for 2018’s Incredibles 2, which took $182.6m in North America and $231.5m globally.
🔮 Fortellr Predicts
Confidence: 85%
In response to Pixar's 'Elio' achieving its worst opening box office numbers despite positive reviews, several trajectories can be anticipated for the film and the broader industry. Historically, films like 'Elio' with positive audience scores and distinctive narratives tend to find success beyond initial box office figures through strong post-theatrical revenue streams, particularly in streaming and home video formats. As noted with 'Elemental' and other similar cases, a robust long-term performance can be propelled by favorable word-of-mouth and strong critical exit scores, potentially transforming such films into sleeper hits. The competition from high-performing franchises poses an ongoing challenge for original animations, emphasizing the importance of creative marketing strategies and diverse revenue channels to secure profitability. Meanwhile, Disney and Pixar are expected to adjust their strategic focus, reinforcing the development of sequels and franchise installments while finding innovative ways to market original content. The animation industry itself may witness a heightened exploration of synergistic approaches—leveraging AI tools for enhanced storytelling and character development may become more prevalent as studios seek ways to distinguish new works in a crowded market. Additionally, broader industry dynamics will likely push studios to integrate audience analytics in real-time to adapt promotional efforts effectively. This situation's culmination points toward a gradual shift where original stories, while initially struggling, could be leveraged to bolster brand loyalty and diversification within a robust multi-platform distribution strategy.