"Greece's Defense Spending: A Strategic Necessity Amidst Historic Tensions and Regional Instability"

Under the warm Mediterranean sun, Greece might seem an unlikely candidate for one of NATO's top defense spenders. Yet, in 2025, this picturesque nation has allocated a significant portion of its GDP to defense—recent estimates place it at around 3.5%, which not only surpasses NATO's 2% guideline but also positions Greece among the alliance's highest spenders, following the United States, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia. This financial commitment is not merely a reflection of Greece's strategic priorities but a testament to its complex geopolitical landscape and historical tensions, particularly with its neighbor and fellow NATO ally, Turkey.

The enmity between Greece and Turkey is steeped in centuries of conflict, displacement, and territorial disputes. Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Bruegel, succinctly encapsulates the enduring friction: "You have this very large number of Greek islands quite close to the Turkish coast that, in principle, the Turks could invade relatively easily." This geographical proximity necessitates a robust military presence on these islands, a costly endeavor that underscores Greece's security strategy.

George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at ELIAMEP, further elaborates on the contemporary relevance of the "Turkish threat." He notes that Greece's substantial defense spending is crucial for safeguarding its sovereignty and sovereign rights, especially in light of Turkey's assertive policies across the Mediterranean. "Greece has no alternative but to be prepared for all scenarios," Tzogopoulos asserts, highlighting the necessity of maintaining a vigilant defense posture amid regional instability.

Despite its considerable defense budget, Greece's military prowess is not without its challenges. Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of political risk advisory at Teneo, observes that while Greece has invested in sophisticated weapons systems, much of this expenditure has been directed abroad. This reliance on foreign arms underscores a critical gap in Greece's defense strategy: the lack of a strong domestic defense industry. Piccoli emphasizes the importance of developing an indigenous industrial base to reduce this dependency.

Moreover, Kirkegaard points out practical limitations within Greece's military capabilities. The Greek army's aging tanks and the dispersal of equipment across its numerous islands pose significant logistical challenges. "It would be a mistake, therefore, in the case of Greece, to equate spending with sort of flat out military capabilities," Kirkegaard cautions, suggesting that financial investment does not necessarily translate into operational effectiveness.

In March 2025, Greece's defense ministry announced a new plan to invest €28 billion in defense over the next twelve years, marking the largest military spending plan in its history. This strategy is built on four pillars: modernizing land, air, and sea forces with new technologies and weapon systems; increasing operational efficiency through joint training and international drills; advancing digital services and exercises; and investing in the defense of critical infrastructure and hybrid security. Notably, the plan includes acquiring 20 fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets and developing the €2.8 billion Achilles’ Shield (Tholos) project, a comprehensive air, missile, and anti-drone defense system.

As NATO convenes this week, Greece's defense expenditures not only bolster its standing within the alliance but also enhance its geopolitical leverage. The country's financial commitments have strengthened ties with major powers like the U.S. and France, both key suppliers of military equipment to Athens. Piccoli notes, "Defense spending in Greece also functions as a tool of geopolitical leverage, enhancing its standing and security guarantees in a complex regional environment."

In the intricate dance of international relations, Greece's defense spending reflects a strategic calculus shaped by historical grievances, regional dynamics, and the imperative to safeguard national sovereignty. As the nation navigates these turbulent waters, its financial commitments to defense remain a pivotal element of its broader geopolitical strategy.